[PAST EVENT] EXTREEMS-QED Lecture: Wayne Nelson

July 26, 2018
2pm - 3pm
Jones Hall, Room 301
200 Ukrop Way
Williamsburg, VA 23185Map this location
Access & Features
  • Open to the public

EXTREEMS-QED Lecture: Wayne Nelson, consultant, WNconsult@aol.com


Abstract: In many applications, there are recurrent events data on sample units. Examples
include the number and cost of repairs of products, recurrent disease episodes in
patients, sales to customers on Amazon.com, births of babies to statisticians,
etc.  Analysis of such recurrence data requires special statistical models and
methods not covered in basic courses. This talk presents a general simple and
informative model and plot for analyzing such recurrence data on numbers or costs
of recurrences. The plots and analyses are illustrated with data on car
transmission repairs, bladder tumor and herpes recurrences, childbirths to
statisticians, amazon.com sales, and other applications. Computer programs that
calculate and make the plots and comparisons with confidence limits are surveyed.

The plots provide

  1.  An estimate of the average number or cost of recurrences per unit during a
      period of interest, for example, warranty or design life of products and profit
      on Amazon.com sales.

  2.  The behavior of the population recurrence rate -- increases or decreases with
      population age; this information is useful for decisions on product burn-in,
      overhaul, and retirement and on patient treatments.

  3.  Predictions of the future number or cost of recurrences for a unit or the
      population; this is useful for predicting warranty costs and the demand for
      replacement parts and for predicting patient costs for recurrent diseases.

  4.  A comparison of data sets from different populations; this is used to decide
      which designs, materials, treatments, environments, etc., produce lower product
      repair rates, which promotion yields more sales, or which treatment yields fewer

  5.  Unsought, useful information.


Speaker. A consultant with General Electric for 24 years, Dr. Nelson now consults
and trains privately on reliability data analysis. He was elected a Fellow of the
Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers, the American Society for
Quality, and the American Statistical Assoc. in recognition of his contributions
to reliability data analysis, accelerated testing, and reliability education. He
was awarded the 2003 Shewhart Medal, 2010 Shainin Medal, and 2018 Hahn Award of
ASQ and the 2005 Lifetime Achievement Award of the IEEE for his outstanding
technical developments and reliability education. He authored three highly
regarded books Applied Life Data Analysis (Wiley 1982,2004), Accelerated Testing
(Wiley 1990,2004), Recurrent Events Data Analysis (ASA-SIAM 2003), two ASQ
booklets, and 130 literature articles.


Larry Leemis