Arts & Sciences Events

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[PAST EVENT] Mathematics Colloquium and EXTREEMS-QED Lecture: Leah Shaw (William & Mary)

April 8, 2016
2pm - 3pm
Location
Jones Hall, Room 301
200 Ukrop Way
Williamsburg, VA 23185Map this location
Abstract: Extinction of an epidemic or a species is a rare event that occurs due to a large, rare stochastic fluctuation. The extinction process follows an optimal path that maximizes the probability of extinction. This path can be analyzed in a dynamical systems framework. After discussing extinction in simpler population models, I will show how to extend the method to epidemic extinction in a network. Extinction times and the most probable path to extinction can then be predicted.