[PAST EVENT] Mathematics Colloquium/CSUMS Lecture

March 16, 2012
2pm - 3pm
Jones Hall, Room 301
200 Ukrop Way
Williamsburg, VA 23185Map this location
Title: Dynamics of an Epidemic Model with Non-Local Infections for Diseases with Latency over a Patchy Environment

Speaker: Xingfu Zou (Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Western Ontario, Canada)

Abstract: Assuming that an infectious disease in a population has a fixed latent period and the latent individuals of the population may disperse, we formulate an SIR model with a simple demographic structure for the population living in an n-patch environment (cities, towns, or countries, etc.). The model is given by a system of delay differential equations with a fixed delay accounting for the latency and a non-local term caused by the mobility of the individuals during the latent period. Assuming irreducibility of the travel matrices of the infection related classes, an expression for the basic reproduction number R0 is derived, and it is shown that the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R0 is less than 1, and becomes unstable if R0 is greater than 1. In the latter case, there is at least one endemic equilibrium and the disease will be uniformly persistent. When n=2, two special cases allowing reducible travel matrices are considered to illustrate joint impact of the disease latency and population mobility on the disease dynamics. In addition to the existence of the disease free equilibrium and interior endemic equilibrium, the existence of a boundary equilibrium and its stability are discussed for these two special cases.

[[jxshix, Junping Shi]]